Two full cycles
For ease of analysis, in this article we will define the following periods: from 2018 to 2020 - the first bear market, from 2020 to 2021 - the second bull market, from 2021 to the present - the second bear market market.
Data on The first bull market from 2015 to 2018 is too short to make an accurate analysis. Therefore, let's look at the last 3 periods.
What data shows that the team is working?
Most projects in Cryptocurrency industries are based on blockchain technology, and their code is open and available on GitHub (a platform for storing and sharing code).
There are six GitHub factors by which you can determine:
- Stars - The popularity of the repository, reflecting user interest in the project.
- Forks - created by other developers based on the repository, which indicates interest in the project;
- Commits - The number of code changes made to the repository, which is used to track activity and progress repository;
- Issues - Issues, bugs, or suggestions for improvement reported by developers and users on GitHub;
- Pull requests - Requests created by other developers to merge their code into the main repository;
- Watchers - Number of users monitoring the repository, by type.
Bear market I (2018-2020) GitHub indicators had an impact on reducing the price decline
GitHub statistics on six indicators and price change of bear market I
During the first bear market, token data shows a higher level of dispersion, consistent with characteristics observed in the early stages of the crypto market. The standard deviation (Stdev) values for all seven metrics during this period deviate greatly from the average, indicating a significant difference in previous token prices and associated data on GitHub. During this time, tokens such as BTC and ETH received significant attention on GitHub in all aspects. On the other hand, many new tokens had less activity on GitHub and fewer contributions from developers.
< p> Top 10 Tokens Based on GitHub Bear Market I Binance Exchange stands out in this top. The Stars and Forks values were among the top 10 indicators. However, the number of Commits, Issues, Pull Requests and Watchers was significantly lower. This can be explained by the fact that the BNB token was primarily an exchange coin. Therefore, its code was not open source.
Among the tokens whose prices fell below the average, 40% of the tokens were in the top 10 according to GitHub metrics. The remaining tokens generally had lower activity on GitHub.
Correlation of performance and price growth of a bear market token I
Five GitHub indicators have a positive impact on the stability of the price of a coin during bear market. However, there is no significant connection between the Commit indicator and price growth in this interval.
Bulrun II (2020-2021): More active projects on GitHub grow better
GitHub statistics for six indicators and price changes Bullrun II
The standard deviation (Stdev) values for seven indicators during this period are closer to the average. Taking into account the current market situation, two important factors can be identified. First, tokens introduced in 2018 made significant strides during this period. Their GitHub metrics also showed a significant increase. Secondly, as the market developed, the number of tokens issued increased significantly. With the increase in the number of tokens for analysis, the concentration of data distribution became more intense.
Top 10 tokens according to GitHub bullrun II indicators. Tokens whose prices increased above average are highlighted in bold
Among the 330 tokens analyzed, 11 of them showed above-average price increases. 5 out of 6 GitHub metrics for these tokens also exceeded the average. This indicates a potential link between the growth of data on GitHub and the increase in token prices.
Top 28 tokens that showed a decline in bullrun II
28 tokens showed the opposite trend. About 90% of the data on GitHub associated with these tokens is below the average level and converges to minimum values overall.
Correlation of indicators and price growth of the Bullrun II token
In the second bull market, we see a noticeable improvement in the correlation between the six indicators and the price of the coin . This improvement can be attributed to the increase in the volume of token analysis from 81 to 330. The correlation coefficient, which measures the strength of the relationship, reached approximately 0.322 over this interval. This value is significantly higher than the average correlation coefficient of 0.260 in Bear I.
Notably, the correlation between factors such as Star, Commit, Watchers and Price was especially strong, reaching 0.350. Apparently, Bear I could have been affected by the analysis of a small number of tokens and individual cases with a low Commit rate.
Bear Market II (2021 to present): Active projects on GitHub are more resilient in a bear market
GitHub Statistics on Six Metrics and Bear Market II Price Change
Top 18 tokens according to GitHub indicators. Tokens with Stars indicators above average are highlighted in bold
The standard deviation values of seven indicators during this period deviate significantly from the average value.
By analyzing the top 20 tokens based on the Stars metric on GitHub, it is possible to identify certain similarities in patterns among tokens that are above average in all six metrics. This indicates a strong correlation between these factors. Additionally, tokens with particularly high ratings across GitHub's six factors tend to be more mature. They were mostly launched between 2015 and 2018, including well-known tokens such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin.
Among the 596 tokens analyzed 28 have anomalies, and among these 28 tokens, 6 (28%) have above-average GitHub scores. It can be concluded that the increase in data on GitHub has an impact on the resistance to price decline, but its impact is small. The strong price advantage of these tokens is mainly driven by factors from other categories.
Correlation of indicators and price growth of a bear market token II
In the third interval, the number of tokens for analysis increased to 597. Average the correlation coefficient is 0.216 in the third interval. This value is significantly lower than the 0.322 correlation observed in Bear Market II. We can conclude that all six indicators have a positive correlation with the rise in token prices. However, it is important to note that the correlation is stronger in bull markets. In bear markets, other factors, such as trading volume and market sentiment, have a greater impact on prices. GitHub data plays a smaller role in bear markets compared to other more important factors.
Conclusion
- As the cryptocurrency market grows and the developer ecosystem develops, GitHub data increasingly shows a strong correlation with the price of cryptocurrencies.
- From an investment point of view, it is recommended to invest in projects with active development on GitHub and avoid projects with low activity on GitHub.
- During a bull market, there is a positive correlation between project activity on GitHub and an increase in the price of the token. During a bear market, active projects are more resilient to falling prices.
- The correlation of GitHub activity data with cryptocurrency prices is significantly higher in a bull market compared to a bear market. That is, during a bull market, active projects grow significantly faster relative to competitors.
